US national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, visited Saudi Crown Prince, Mohammed Bin Salman, in Jeddah to discuss a number of important issues concerning both nations, however, the issue of Israeli-Saudi normalization has taken center stage. As Israel and Saudi Arabia have both had bumpy relations with the US Biden administration, such a deal makes little sense and is more about optics than anything else.
On July 27, top advisor to US President Joe Biden, Jake Sullivan, travelled to Saudi Arabia to discuss “initiatives to advance a common vision for a more peaceful, secure, prosperous, and stable Middle East region interconnected with the world,” the White House announced. The official statement from the White House interestingly made no mention of Israel, despite the visit being perceived as an attempt to further talks between Tel Aviv and Riyadh on the conclusion of a normalization deal.
Yet a report published shortly thereafter by the New York Times indicated that a plan was discussed to achieve Israeli-Saudi normalization and that the Biden administration was mulling a mutual security pact with Saudi Arabia that would include a normalization deal. The author of the NYT opinion piece, Thomas Friedman, wrote that the Saudi visit intended “to explore the possibility of some kind of US-Saudi-Israeli-Palestinian understanding”. Friedman goes on to weigh up what it would take to achieve the normalization deal, proposing that the US would likely have to add in elements to force Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, to sacrifice annexing large portions of the Palestinian West Bank and that Tel Aviv would have to take steps towards preserving the two-state solution — something the Israeli government (especially the current coalition) has made very clear is not even up for debate.
Will We See Saudi-Israeli Normalization Under The Biden Administration?
The short answer to this is that it will not be possible without the US making huge concessions to Saudi Arabia, this is the only thing that is really holding back such a deal from taking place. All the talk of Israel stopping settlement expansion, cancelling any intentions to draw up plans to annex the West Bank, and uphold the so-called two-state-solution, are points that make well for a Hollywood movie script, but are just not congruent with the bounds of reality.
As was the case with the US Trump administration’s infamous “Abraham Accords“, under which the former American President, Donald Trump, managed to secure Israeli normalization deals out of Bahrain, Morocco, Sudan, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), the idea that Israel would sacrifice anything in favor of the Palestinians is simply ludicrous. Abu Dhabi attempted to use the idea that they prevented Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu from annexing the West Bank, which sounded alright for them on paper as a concession, yet the Israeli PM never intended to actually carry out the annexation (at least at the time) and had already sidelined the idea. Even if Netanyahu had wanted annexation, the UAE normalization deal would have still occurred, because this was a UAE deal with the Trump administration that was completely under the auspices of Emirati decision makers and not US pressure. The UAE was also key in pressuring both Morocco and Sudan to normalize ties along with them.
The reason the Trump administration achieved these normalization deals was down to his ultra close relationship with Abu Dhabi and Riyadh. In addition to this, Donald Trump, who proclaimed to be the most pro-Israel President ever, was ready to break with international law, the consensus of the international community, and decades of US policy, all to please Tel Aviv and openly crush the so-called “two-state solution”. At this time, if Biden wishes to secure a normalization deal between Saudi Arabia and Israel, he will need to concede US interests in order to get it done. Yet the only real benefit of such a deal will come in the form of these concessions given to Saudi Arabia leading to legitimacy for the Israeli government of Netanyahu.
The whole idea of leveraging a NATO-level mutual security pact, to achieve Saudi-Israeli normalization, will actually carry with it some negative connotations at this point. A US-Saudi security pact of this sort, which would involve the US government intervening to protect Riyadh in the event of attack, is not only less desirable now due to the emerging multi-polar order, but its application has also been temporarily nullified by the Chinese-brokered Iran-Saudi rapprochement. The only true threat to Saudi Arabia in the region was the potentiality of a war with Iran.
In reality, what the US Biden administration would be roping itself in for, in the event of such a security pact’s signing, is a potential war of aggression against Yemen. Peace talks between Riyadh and the Ansarallah government in Sana’a have recently broken down, which raises the prospects for a renewal of fighting. In the event that a peace deal is not reached with Yemen, the Biden administration would be guaranteeing another endless war that will involve a direct US response. This would be an awful decision for the policy makers in Washington.
If the US government is committed to the sale of certain technology to Saudi Arabia, in addition to aiding it in establishing a nuclear energy program, then this would be a viable chip that the Biden administration can put on the table. Yet there are many considerations to be made by Saudi Crown Prince, Mohammed Bin Salman, including its alignments in global politics and how any deals with the Americans could effect its standing with China, Russia, and even Iran. By entering into a normalization deal with the Israeli government, it is likely that this could be interpreted in Tehran as an aggression of sorts and may even lead to the deterioration of ties between the two sides, at least temporarily.
For the time being, Saudi Arabia is no longer completely loyal to the West and the possibility of religious grievances boiling over into security tensions for the Kingdom has to be factored into any decisions it makes vis-a-vis Israel. The Israeli far-right government of Benjamin Netanyahu is an unstable one, plagued with religious extremists that consistently provoke the ire of the entire Muslim world through incursions and provocations at the third Holiest site in the Islamic faith; the compound of al-Aqsa Mosque.
Furthermore, the idea that there could be a US-Saudi-Israeli-Palestinian agreement, is outright ridiculous. There is no possibility of signing Palestinians onto such a deal. Even though the Palestinian Authority (PA) does do the bidding of the Israelis inside the West Bank, it will not go as far as signing a surrender agreement and give up the entire Palestinian cause, which is the only thing that the Israelis would accept to sign onto. The so-called two-state solution is not just a thing of the past, it is a notion that is not tolerated at all by the ultra-nationalists that hold the Netanyahu government together. The Religious Zionism party alliance, which is the second largest party in the current coalition, will not allow the Israeli PM to bow down on the current judicial reform legislation, let alone bow down on seizing the West Bank.
The Religious Zionism alliance is made up of settler activists who live in illegal West Bank colonies. These are people who see the Israeli economy, military, and society all taking a hit over the judicial reforms, and have not backed down an inch. Religious Zionism threatens to collapse the Netanyahu government over the judicial reforms, so the notion that the most important cause to them will be discarded and that they would sit by as the PA is written into an agreement that would further the cause of them taking over the West Bank, is extremely far-fetched.
If Saudi-Israeli normalization is to occur, it will come at a massive cost to the US government, all for the equivalent of a photo-op for the Biden administration. There are just so many negatives to the concept of achieving this deal, that it would not be worth it in the slightest for the Americans. It would be a photo-op for Biden, a saving moment for Netanyahu, and a collection of free stuff for the already mega-wealthy Saudi leadership, all while the Palestinians are further isolated. The Israelis would give up nothing, the Saudis would get handouts, and the American people would find their leadership stirring up Middle East tensions unnecessarily, once again, all for an egotistical achievement that leaves Palestinians in the dirt.
