Over the past few days the US Biden administration has contributed to stirring up chaos over Iran’s pledged response to Israeli airstrikes that destroyed its Damascus based consulate. Despite this situation clearly being of Israel’s making, a narrative is being concocted to suggest Tel Aviv is the victim and that Tehran is preparing the equivalent of an unprovoked terrorist attack.
Almost two weeks have passed since Israel carried out an unprecedented attack against Iran’s consulate in Damascus, Syria, murdering 7 members of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the most prominent of which was Mohammad Reza Zahedi. While the missile attack represented an egregious violation of international law and two nation’s sovereignty, in addition to being an affront to global diplomatic norms, it was also a direct strike against Iranian territory. It has to be understood that no nation would stand by and simply allow such an unprovoked aggression, tantamount to a declaration of war, to pass without any response.
When the issue was tabled by Russia at the United Nations Security Council (UNSC), in an emergency session, the US prevented a condemnation of the event from being passed, essentially robbing the government of Iran any political or legal recourse — at least in the short term. For further context, it should be noted that the Syrian Arab Republic has repeatedly attempted to appeal to the United Nations over hundreds of unprovoked Israeli attacks against its territory, including strikes on its ports and airports, as well as both its civilian and military infrastructure. All of Syria’s pleas, which have been ongoing for years, have fallen on deaf ears and been blocked from going anywhere by the United States government, permitting repeated acts of war without any pushback against their allies in Tel Aviv.
Understanding the situation in Syria and the sensitivity of the regional situation, Iran’s IRGC had taken the approach of attempting to de-escalate tensions during some 6 months of Israel’s genocidal war in Gaza. This clear policy on Iran’s behalf, of attempting to maintain a system of conflict management, was in place despite repeated attacks that killed Iranian citizens as well.
In late December, Israel assassinated the IRGC’s Sayyed Razi Mousavi in airstrikes it conducted in the vicinity of Syria’s capital city. Iran was faced with a difficult decision at that time, which the IRGC had studied and debated internally, ultimately deciding to launch a retaliation attack in January. The Iranian response came in the form of a series of missile strikes that blew up a Mossad headquarters in northern Iraq, in addition to missile launches that allegedly hit Daesh linked targets in Syria’s Idlib province; the significance of the Syria strike was to show that the IRGC could hit a distance as far away from Iranian territory as the Israeli-held city of Tel Aviv. Although Israel was made to pay a price for its assassination attack, Iran decided to use its retaliation as a means of warning the Israelis in an attempt to deter further strikes.
In what appeared to be Israel’s way of calling Iran’s bluff, later in January, the Israeli Air Force struck the Mezzeh neighborhood in central Damascus, murdering 5 more IRGC members and a number of Syrians, both civilians and soldiers. This time, the IRGC made the decision not to respond, despite the devastating nature of the illegal Israeli strikes. For Iran, the idea of not retaliating directly was calculated to prevent a potentially explosive escalation regionally, and this attempt to prevent such an escalation ended up coming at the expense of its own deterrence and even its image of strength.
At the start of April, Israel’s decision to blow up the Iranian consulate in Damascus changed everything. This flagrant violation of all previously understood international norms represented a major shift, putting Tehran in a position where it was forced to respond. While the US quickly took to distancing itself from the attack, and Israel refrained from officially taking responsibility directly, it was clear that Washington must have had some knowledge of Israel’s intentions — Tehran has made it clear that they believe the strikes were green-lit by the United States.
What Will Iran Do And Where Will This Lead?
In recent days, Western mainstream media have gone into a frenzy and appear to be conjuring up a number of unconfirmed claims regarding what Iran’s response will be. CBS News recently cited unnamed US officials, claiming that Iran has readied some 100+ drones and missiles in order to launch a direct attack on Israeli military facilities, while others have released speculation on what the response may look like. The US, Canada, Germany, the UK, and other nations have requested their citizens immediately depart from Israeli territory.
US President, Joe Biden, also addressed the press on the issue, stating that the attack will likely come soon, and when asked his message to Iran — regarding its pledged response — he stated “don’t“. The US has also reportedly moved its warships into the Mediterranean in order to “defend Israel“, while asserting that its two primary goals are to ensure “Israel’s right to self defense” and the safety of American forces. However, in this case, after the Israeli Air Force bombed Iranian territory and carried out three separate attacks against Iranian officials, Israel has no right of self defense. It is in fact Iran which has a clear right to retaliate, or as Israel would frame it, the right to “defend itself”, should we decide to use the Israeli/US government definition which seems to indefinitely apply well after an immediate response in one’s own defense — the actual meaning of the phrase. In addition to this, American involvement in any Israeli aggression against Iran will not help protect US forces, it will do the opposite and put them all in harms way, which is something the US government is very well aware of.
Meanwhile, as the Biden administration appears to be ready to back Israel in a potential war with Iran, it refuses to even pressure Tel Aviv to adopt a policy of restraint. According to an informed Syrian security source speaking with The Last American Vagabond, Israel has indirectly threatened to launch an “decapitation strike” against the government in Damascus should Iran attack Israel, and even began removing minefields set in the Golan Heights that would enable its forces to invade Syria. This appears to be an attempt to pressure Iran, yet could indicate they are indeed ready for a major regional escalation.
What Iran may do is a question which is not simple to answer. The targets that are open for them to hit are numerous and it is likely they will strike a series of military sites, but which sites and how much value those targets will hold will determine how large the escalation will be. However, the bigger question is how Israel will respond to the Iranian retaliatory strikes.
On Saturday morning, the IRGC decided to seize an Israeli-linked ship in the Strait of Hormuz, which is operated by Israeli billionaire Eyal Ofer’s company Zodiac Maritime. According to Iranian State-run media “the ship has now been guided towards the territorial waters of our country”, while Israeli military sources were quoted as warning that Iran will bear the “consequences” of the action. It is not yet clear what the exact reasoning is behind the Iranian seizure of the ship, named MSC Aries, but it has been speculated that the Israeli-owned company that has ownership over it may have been planning action against Iran.
In 2021, Iran’s armed forces targeted a ship called Mercer, operated by Zodiac Maritime, with two loitering munitions. At the time, the attack was portrayed as unprovoked, yet it was later revealed that the reason behind the attack was likely because Zodiac Maritime is known for its close connections with the Israeli military and has had a long history operating as a front company to transport Israeli military/intelligence operatives under the guise of commercial shipping. A very important factor to consider regarding Yemen’s targeting of Israeli vessels.
A major question remains: did Israel launch its attack on the Iranian consulate having already prepared a strategy to escalate tensions, planning to use whatever Iran does to enact that strategy? This question is key, because if Tel Aviv wants Iran to respond, it doesn’t matter what the IRGC do, they will use it the same way. If this is the case, Iran should hit extremely hard in order to set the pace of any future escalation and be in a dominant position, but this comes at the cost of throwing away the policy of containing the war in Gaza and attempting to help reach a ceasefire there. Ceasefire talks between Hamas and Israel have now once again broken down.
While speculation has led to people on all sides of the political spectrum throwing about the idea of a mass coordinated attack against the Israelis and some even suggesting that nothing will happen at all, the truth is that we have entered unchartered territory. It makes no sense for the US government to commit itself to a war against Iran, but this could occur, as we have seen the American leadership embarrass itself repeatedly in the Red Sea and fail to put a dent on Yemen’s Ansarallah — despite declaring their costly Operation Prosperity Guardian (OPG). It appears as if the Biden administration is living in an alternate universe and has not been able to navigate the current terrain in the region, operating with the mindset of 2003 when it invaded Iraq illegally. This lack of strategic or rational thinking from policymakers in Washington is frightening to say the least. At the end of the day, the US could have ended the ongoing conflict in the region with a single phone call, yet refuses to condemn or punish anything that the Israeli government does.
Thanks for posting such great informative article; truly has been appreciated!
There is another side to consider about Iran’s right to defend itself… of course, in my humble opinion.
The current Mexico’s complain submitted to the ICJ about their Embassy in Ecuador. If the court returns a positive outcome to the ‘future handling” of such invasion’s and violations of international agreements, it would mean the loss/removal of such nations and perhaps same outcome to those also implicated/participant nations. It shall be quite interesting to see what the ICJ decides.
More importantly… the entire world populace has caught eye of events and injustices being done wide open… in Palestine, Equador, Iran and so on. And being that neither the UN or the ICJ have been effective in stopping the ‘”*ROGE NATIONS” AND THEIR SUPPORTERS PLUS ITS ‘PEDDLERS’ WHO HAVE BEEN USING PROPAGANDA TO DECEIVE THE WORLD NATION’S POPULACE… perhaps… they may just get to witness the fall of such… by finally discarding all remaining trust. After all… the man-made laws seem to apply only on the basis of how much influence, money, or power… not about delivering justice. Therefore, justice turns out to be JUST ICE delivered.