Is The US-Israel Relationship Really Falling Apart?

After the mysterious leaking of Pentagon documents and months of instability for Tel Aviv, the Israel-US relationship is being called into question in a significant way. What seems to be a clash between the extremist Israeli government of Benjamin Netanyahu and the Biden White House, has sparked interest in where the special relationship is headed.

Amidst the ongoing demonstrations in Tel Aviv, against the Israeli government’s proposed judicial reforms, an article was published early last month in Foreign Policy, entitled “The U.S.-Israel Relationship No Longer Makes Sense”. The article, which shares similar critiques of the Israeli government as have been published in other Western media outlets, argues that the “shared values” between the US and Israel no longer exist, or at the very least are fading. The author of the piece, Steven A. Cook, presents a two-sided argument; one focusing on security and the other on shared democratic values. The security analysis of Israel’s position in the Middle East reads as a somewhat novice attempt at analyzing the region, yet still contains elements of truth, however, the segment on “values” is of great importance.

The Western anti-Netanyahu argument sides with the Israeli opposition’s camp in the Knesset, led by former Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid. The argument presented is as follows: Israeli protesters are rising up to protect Israeli democracy and represent a majority that disagree with the Benjamin Netanyahu government’s judicial overhaul, they do so on the basis of protecting Israeli liberal democracy, the only democracy in the Middle East. Therefore, PM Netanyahu’s right-wing government seeks to impose a nationalist- religious State model to replace liberal democracy and this threatens the shared core values of the US-Israel relationship.

The above described analysis is, on one level, true, in that the Israeli society is now clashing over the issue of what they seek for the future of the regime. What the Western media and specifically the Foreign Policy piece miss, is how the US government actually judges its relationship with foreign regimes. So far this year, there has been seemingly non-stop visits by US delegations; including from the US secretary of State, the Secretary of Defense, the CIA director, and more. The US has also facilitated two separate security summits to work on joint Palestinian Authority-Israel cooperation, in Aqaba (Jordan) and in Sharm el-Sheikh (Egypt). On a region-wide level, Washington has been dealt major blows to its hegemonic role in the Middle East, namely with the Chinese-facilitated Saudi-Iran normalization deal. All of this is to say that the US is losing a grip on its dominance regionally.

Israel’s governments have long been fascistic in nature and have behaved as one would expect for an Apartheid regime — as all leading human rights groups now call it. When the new government of Benjamin Netanyahu took office, it was clear that the hardline religious elements were going to be extremely provocative, which did not stop President Joe Biden from congratulating Netanyahu and pledging to work together to make history. However, when hundreds of thousands of Israelis continuously took to the streets, week after week, leading to clashes with police and even dissent from within the Israeli military, political, and intelligence establishments, then came a problem.

The recent Pentagon intelligence leaks, although it is unclear how trustworthy they are, allege that Israel’s security establishment, including the Mossad, had actively encouraged anti-judicial reform protests. Whatever the validity of these documents, which Tel Aviv has flatly denied are correct, it has opened up the conversation as to who has an interest in these demonstrations. In order to speculate on that, we also need to consider what the repercussions of the opposition to judicial reforms could bring, which Israel’s President Isaac Herzog has warned could result in civil war. Israel’s Labour Union, the Histadrut, announced a general strike would occur until Netanyahu announced the postponement of bills that would begin the judicial overhaul process, this combined with hundreds of thousands of demonstrators blocking roads, clashing with police, and storming Netanyahu’s home, conveyed weakness on behalf of the regime as a whole. This weakness, the US Biden administration will certainly take seriously, as is the case with regional players.

If Israel is threatened with an existential internal crisis, it is very likely that Washington will privately back any initiative to restore calm, this could include helping to remove the current government. There is currently no evidence for this, despite claims from the current Israeli government about US interference in Tel Aviv’s affairs, however, this would make sense. A weak Israel, which is run by a government that is essentially held together by extremist members of the Religious Zionism alliance, is a problem for the US government. The Biden administration is not seeking to leave the Middle East, despite the setbacks, and is going ahead with the construction of the largest embassy in the region, located inside Lebanon, currently.

Although Jordan, Qatar, and Lebanon, all exist as bases for US power in the Middle East, Israel is the prime actor on its behalf and Israeli stability is crucial to Western dominance in the region. The Israeli opposition, led by Yair Lapid, would make for a un-problematic parrot of the ideas espoused in the Western liberal democracies. Lapid even spoke at the United Nations General Assembly last year, mentioning for the first time in around a decade, the “two-State solution”. Although the US knows that no peace deals will be reached and that Israel will continue with its persecution of Palestinians, what is important is having a calculating Israeli government that aims to protect the “status-quo” and doesn’t inflame relations with neighboring friendly nations like Jordan and Egypt. Right now, the Netanyahu government is being led by the policy positions of West Bank settler politicians, like Itamar Ben Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich. These men are hardline ideologues that work based upon emotion and do not have a strategic political bone in their bodies.

When Bezalel Smotrich, the current Israeli finance minister, calls for wiping out an entire Palestinian village right after a pogrom was carried out, going on weeks later to say Palestinians aren’t a real people whilst standing next to a map of “Israel” that includes Jordan, along with parts of Saudi Arabia and Syria — it is an embarrassment. The problem for Israel now, is that this government was voted in by the majority of Israeli citizens, we are told, where a growing number of the populace are leaning towards an ultra-nationalist, and/or religious-extremist ideology. The worth of Israel to the US government is to work to pursue joint interests in dominating the region and combating actors such as Iran. However, if Israel transforms further into an irrational theocracy, they will end up creating more problems than they solve for the Americans.

The US does not have a problem with Israel being any type of state, in principle, because the idea of shared values is simply a propaganda myth; the only possible shared values between both sides are the desire to dominate the region and dispossess indigenous peoples. Washington may be uncomfortable with Israel transforming away from liberal democracy, it certainly hurts their Public Relations spin on why they provide billions in foreign military aid every year, but it is clearly not a deal breaker. Those suggesting that it is, need only look at the long-standing relationships between the US government and the oppressive regimes of Egypt and Saudi Arabia, to know that the whole idea of “shared values” and “democracy” are nothing more than misleading platitudes.

If Israel continues down this road, regime change may be a stretch of the imagination, yet the decision makers in Washington will certainly seek to encourage a solution. The US does not need an escalation stemming from the Israeli government’s mis-calculations and immature extremism, it wants a strong Israeli regime that is prepared to work in lockstep to gain back regional supremacy. At this time, Israel is at its weakest ever point when it comes to its ability to combat its surrounding opposition, it is at a loss of how it can contain the armed struggle in the West Bank. The society is divided, and according to recent polls 71% of Israelis believe the government has performed poorly. The chances of US President Joe Biden’s desired Saudi-Israeli normalization deal are growing thinner by the day, this all clearly presents a challenge to the White House. At this point, the US government needs the Israelis if they are going to salvage any dominant role in the Middle East, which is why there may appear to be great tension between this government and the United States, because Netanyahu’s government is a nuisance for the US government agenda.