A vessel that Tel Aviv has contracted to extract gas from the Karish field, which is located in a disputed maritime zone, is set to begin extracting within weeks. In the event that no maritime border agreement is signed, Lebanese Hezbollah has vowed to attack Israeli oil and gas facilities and the latest announcement is a clear provocation.
In early June, the Lebanese State warned Israel over exploiting the gas at the disputed Karish field, where a ‘Energean’ owned vessel had been contracted to work by Tel Aviv. On June 5, Lebanon’s President, Michel Aoun, stated that extraction without the demarcation of maritime borders “constitutes a provocation and a hostile act“, this was then followed by threats from Hezbollah to pursue a military option against Israel if no agreement is to be reached.
Maritime border talks, mediated by the United States, have been ongoing between Beirut and Tel Aviv for years, on and off. Since 2019, the economic system of Lebanon has fell into collapse and according to some UN estimates around 80% of the Lebanese population are experiencing some form of poverty. The potentially resource rich Qana field and the Karish field, of which Lebanon claims a part to be within its legal rights, would bring in billions of dollars to a people and its economy which are now resorting, in some cases, to eating out of bins and fighting over loaves of bread.
This is why Lebanese Hezbollah, the political and military Party that forced Israel to withdraw from occupying Southern Lebanon in 2000 and then defeated the Israeli army in 2006, has threatened to retaliate if the gas that exists in their territorial waters is held back from the Lebanese people. Seyyed Hassan Nasrallah, the Secretary General of Hezbollah, has made things very clear; if Lebanon cannot access its oil and gas, then nobody can. It was very clearly stated by Nasrallah, that if gas extraction at the disputed Karish field begins without any demarcation agreement, Hezbollah’s armed wing will strike Israeli oil and gas facilities, any or all of them.
The Lebanese State’s bid to secure billions from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has so-far failed, with no hope in sight of change anytime soon. This being said, the only way Lebanon can see itself through the current state of collapse is to secure its gas interests and revive the nation through the means of its own natural riches off of its coast. Options of Iranian aide, including oil transfers and nuclear power facilities have also been put on the table. Promises from the United States, to help fix Lebanon’s energy problem, via Egypt transferring its gas through Jordan, then Syria, into Lebanon, has born no fruits. For over a year, Washington has failed to amend its sanctions against Syria, in order to allow the passage of resources into Lebanon, via Jordan, despite Cairo making it very clear that they are ready to do this at any time.
Lebanon, despite having just passed through a national election earlier this, has so far failed to form a new government and is instead headed by an interim-government. Michel Aoun, the current President of Lebanon, will come to the end of his term in office on October 31, yet the Lebanese parliament are not even close to deciding on a PM and there is not yet hope that a new President will be selected. Due to the current crisis on the political level in Lebanon, there is a great problem with the legitimacy with which the interim government can sign onto a maritime border agreement with Israel also. This is whilst the threat of an Israeli “preemptive attack” option against Lebanon and it is said that Israel will allow gas extraction from the Karish field on September 20.
The announcement from the Energean company, that they will “within weeks” begin operations as planned, taking back talk of delay until October, has drastically increased the chance that Hezbollah will now take action. Amos Hochstien, the pro-Israel US mediator for the issue of the maritime border dispute, was reportedly set to visit Lebanese officials, for a visit only lasting hours, this Friday. If there is not substantive change to the US-Israeli approach, war could be imminent.
Hochstein, who is supposed to be a neutral in-between is nothing of the sort, laughing on Lebanese television at a host who suggested the idea of Karish for Qana. Later, the pro-Israeli US negotiator would go on to take the issue much more seriously after a number of threats that Hezbollah would not allow Israel to get the better of Lebanon and for the world to laugh at the Lebanese people.
This whole time, the biggest problem has been US and Israeli arrogance. They see that Lebanon has nothing to lose as a sign of weakness; when in reality it has meant that the Lebanese have their backs against the wall, and this desperation to revive their country will only drive the desire to inflict a military defeat on Israel.
For the US Government, they have been attempting to find alternative sources of energy since NATO sanctions against Moscow created the beginnings of what has become a seemingly engineered energy crisis — hitting Europe especially hard. One of those alternatives was to come as a result of Israel’s exploitation of oil and gas off the coast of occupied Palestine. An agreement was already signed between Israel and the EU, earlier this year, to have Tel Aviv send their gas via pipeline to Egypt, where it would be shipped to Europe. The Israeli regime plans to double its output of gas. However, if a war with Lebanon breaks out, the Israelis won’t be able to export a thing, which is cause for even more concern in Europe.
