Azerbaijan is a central piece in the emerging Middle Corridor trade route, connecting China to Europe, but its relations with Tel Aviv and growing rift between it and Tehran could destabilize not only the region, but also international trade.
Since Azerbaijan’s war with Armenia in 2020, over territory in Nagorno-Karabakh, Baku’s relations with Tehran have remained on shaky grounds. The Islamic Republic of Iran was put in a difficult position, attempting to maintain a balanced view in public as to not upset either side. Politically, it made sense for Tehran to back Yerevan in its fight against Baku, as Azerbaijan poses a challenge to Iran on a number of levels. However, Iran did not want to upset Azerbaijan for fear of the potential ethnic divisions this could stir up inside Iranian territory, where roughly 20 million ethnic-Azeri’s live. In addition to this, there was the added problem that a Christian country was fighting a Shia Muslim country, so for Tehran to back Christians warring with Shia Muslims may have proved a difficulty.
Azerbaijan-Iran relations began to take a nose dive early last November, after Armenian Prime Minister, Nikol Pashinyan, was invited to the Iranian Capital, sparking backlash from Azerbaijan’s President, Ilham Aliyev, who used the argument that leaders “who destroy mosques“ shouldn’t be welcome in Muslim countries. Interestingly enough, however, Aliyev’s largest arms supplier between 2016-2020 was Israel, supplying a total of 69% of their weaponry that they used to defeat Armenia’s army. Whilst Baku uses the Muslim solidarity argument against Iran, it itself helps in testing the weapons of, and financing through its purchases, the Israeli military which routinely destroy’s mosques and is actively threatening to change the status quo and even destroy the third holiest site in Islam, the Al-Aqsa Mosque.
It is in Azerbaijan’s close relationship with Israel which the largest threat to Baku-Tehran relations lives. Amid ongoing tensions between Iran and Azerbaijan, Baku decided earlier this month to appoint its first ever ambassador to Israel, following an earlier decision last November to open up an embassy in Tel Aviv. Whilst Israel has maintained bilateral relations with Azerbaijan for the past 30 years, those relations have grown extremely close since 2016. Israel provides great military and diplomatic backing to Baku, whilst Tel Aviv receives around 40% of its oil imports from Azerbaijan, making the country the largest single supplier of energy to the Israeli regime.
In 2012, a report in Foreign Policy magazine quoted US diplomats as saying that “Israel is deeply imbedded in Azerbaijan“, along with claims that Tel Aviv’s Air Force had been granted access to air bases along the nation’s border with Iran. Intelligence figures from the US also said that it is their impression that this Tel Aviv-Baku close relationship is complicating efforts to reduce tensions between the Israelis and Iranians. Although there have been attempts to deny reports that any air base was set up for Israel in the country, by Azerbaijani officials, there has not been a clear answer issued as to whether Israeli aircraft would be able to use air bases for purposes other than directly striking Iran. There is the possibility also that Azerbaijan is simply lying and have air bases from which Tel Aviv could carry out attacks against Iran.
If Israel is seeking to strike Iranian nuclear sites, as it is constantly threatening to do and has declared that it is preparing plans for, then the most advantageous position from which they could carry out such strikes would be from Azerbaijan. Thousands of militants from the Turkish proxy force known as the Syrian National Army (SNA), had allegedly participated in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict on the side of Azerbaijan and were later said to have been deployed close to the Iranian border. Despite Baku’s denial that they had used Syrian forces against Armenia, the evidence suggests that they had, although the allegations that these mercenary fighters were deployed close to the Iranian border is unsubstantiated. It is feared that in the event that Turkey is to back any Azerbaijani war effort against Tehran, proxy forces could be used.
The biggest single external threat to Iran, is the potential for Azerbaijan to covertly back separatist elements within the Azeri-Iranian population, residing primarily in North Eastern Iran. If such a separatist movement ever grows strong, this could prove to be a massive military and economic challenge to the Iranian government, although at this time it does not seem as if separatist groups have captured the imaginations of any significant number of people and such elements have been routinely busted by the Iranian police for working with foreign intelligence agencies. Whilst the Azerbaijan angle for waging an impactful war against Iran does seem to be Israel’s best bet, there are a number of barriers in place which prevents such action, one of them being the fact that the Islamic Republic could easily destroy the ability of Tel Aviv’s biggest energy supplier to provide Israel with oil. In addition to this, due to the large Shia population, which the majority of Azerbaijan’s Muslims identify as, there is also the possibility that Iran’s religious sway over them could cause domestic unrest in Azerbaijan as well.
Israel, if it chooses to use Azerbaijan as anything more than a state with which it trades weapons and oil, attempting instead to pit it against Iranian militarily, this could be extremely costly on many levels. Firstly, if Tehran views the challenge as an existential threat, there is a possibility that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) will simply choose to strike Israel directly. There is also the fact that it may lose out majorly on oil supplies.
The most important factor here, however, will be the effect that an escalation, and the instability that this will result in, will do to what is known as the Middle Corridor. The Middle Corridor is China’s new alternative trade route, which through its ‘belt and road initiative’ seeks to connect mainland China to Europe. Although there was previously large investment in a Northern Corridor, through Russia, the ongoing conflict between Kiev and Moscow has prevented the project from being implemented, similarly, a corridor through Iran may have presented as too high risk for Beijing. The Middle Corridor is looking to develop the potential of using Azerbaijan, as the passage way for trade to Turkey, then from there to Europe, after the passage of goods through the Caspian sea from a number of states, most prominently Kazakhstan.
Turkey has recently become an international trade hub and this new Middle Corridor works to its own advantage greatly. Ankara truly is seeking to serve as the gateway between East and West, opening up new possibilities, putting itself in a dominant position as a mediator and economically developing its power. Whilst Turkey maintains close ties with a variety of Turkic states, even exerting some influence over the Uyghur Muslims in China’s Xingjiang Province, it is unlikely that Ankara will support stirring up a conflict that could rock a key supply route that has the potential to boost its own regional standing and inject billions into its own economy. If it is Tehran that starts the conflict, perhaps it would be in the Turkish national interest to back the Tel Aviv-Baku alliance, however, such a conflict would cause an unwanted interruption.
The reason why Turkey may pose as a deterrent to any planned action from Tel Aviv, is that the newly established ties between both sides could deteriorate once again, this time in a way whereby Ankara will apply more than diplomatic pressure — instead economic pressure — on Israel. Tel Aviv’s new regime is, however, steadily heading towards a confrontation with regional players, especially due to its provocations surrounding the Al-Aqsa Mosque compound; so there is still a question mark as to how they may choose to play the Azerbaijan card against Iran.
Additionally, the Middle Corridor will serve to benefit Europe also in the long run, something that the European Union may factor in when approaching such an issue. Yet due to the recent stances taken by European states, which have essentially shown them to have sacrificed their own sovereignty over to the United States, Washington’s view could override their own if it is the intention of the US government to undermine the Middle Corridor. At this point, it is clear the European leaderships are more than willing to cause their own people harm and wreck their own economies if it serves Washington’s interests.
Ultimately, the growing Israeli influence in the Caucasus and their strong bilateral relations with Azerbaijan actively threaten China’s belt and road initiative, Turkey’s regional importance, and could cause a devastating conflict inside both Iran and Azerbaijan. Although we are not quite there at the moment, developments in this area are of global importance and could threaten regional security, as well as undermine the world economy.
