Following three separate drone and missile attacks on the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Abu Dhabi moves to secure more weapons from the West. But despite the cutting edge technology, the war in Yemen will continue to spill over into their backyard unless they engage with Iran on the issue.
Three attacks on the United Arab Emirates, in January, saw the country’s tourist hub Dubai and Capital Abu Dhabi fall victim to the drone and ballistic missile technology of the Houthi (Ansarallah) movement in Yemen. Three were killed in the first attack on Abu Dhabi, whilst all three attacks have targeted sensitive military sites and even disrupted flights to the oil-rich Gulf state. In instant reaction to these strikes, Abu Dhabi combined its own military force with that of its ally Saudi Arabia, striking back at Yemen hard, killing hundreds in the process.
Yet none of the military responses to the Ansarallah missile and drone attacks have been able to prevent further strikes. In fact, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has come under Houthi attacks for years and, despite desperate attempts to acquire greater air defense technology and offensive weaponry, it hasn’t made the slightest dent in Ansarallah’s capacity to attack them. In the case of the UAE, like Saudi crown prince Mohamed Bin Salman, Abu Dhabi’s crown prince Mohamed Bin Zayed al-Nahyan is also incapable of preventing Houthi strikes by way of acquiring more weapons from the West.
Despite the clear example from Saudi Arabia, that sophisticated US air defense systems will not shoot down every Houthi missile, the UAE seems to be heading in the same pointless direction. The difference, however, between Saudi Arabia and the UAE, is that the Emiratis have the option of contacting their strong trade partner Iran. Saudi Arabia and Iran are not on good terms and so turning to Tehran is not really on the table for Riyadh — at least publicly. But for Abu Dhabi, they are Tehran’s top import partner, they have stable diplomatic channels, and following the latest drone and missile strikes on the UAE, meetings took place between the two oil-producing regional powers.
But for the UAE, which is currently playing a careful balancing act between Israel and Iran, both of which are key allies, it may be making a deadly mistake by taking Israeli help in confronting the issue in Yemen. Both the US and Israeli governments have rushed to supply their latest military technology to the UAE — defensive and even offensive — in order to combat the threat posed by Ansarallah. It seems like the UAE has taken the bait and will be acquiring new air defense equipment to deal with future strikes, which certainly isn’t a death sentence, but their lack of progress towards reaching a diplomatic solution in Yemen may well be.
The reality is, the UAE can arm itself with every top air defense system on the planet, yet it will not prevent missiles and drones from getting through and hitting their targets. The fact that the air defenses will visibly take to the skies to defend cities like Abu Dhabi and Dubai is in of itself a loss too, as tourists will be put into a state of fear along with local residents.
The only way to stop the Ansarallah strikes is for the UAE to reach out to its Iranian neighbors and request a diplomatic solution, where they can make some concessions with the Houthis in order to keep strikes from reaching their territory. It is the UAE’s role in Yemen which has sparked the retaliatory strikes, so the only way forward is to solve their problems with the Yemeni government in Sanaa, not by paying billions for weapons from Washington and Tel Aviv. Iran is the diplomatic go-between, which can easily reach its Ansarallah allies and talk about what the demands are to be for both sides; this is the most realistic way forward if the UAE truly wanted peace.
If the UAE is seeking arrogance however, like it seems to be doing as of now, it can expect even more significant missile and drone attacks in the future and their Western allies will do nothing for them then. If Ansarallah will strike Abu Dhabi during the visit of Israel’s President Isaac Herzog, it means that they will strike no matter who is there or what weapons are purchased by the Emiratis.
If the United Arab Emirates is truly seeking to solve the issue, they could in fact try to please both their Western allies, as well as Tehran. Meaning that they can use this now as an excuse to get their hands on better technology, whilst also pursuing a diplomatic strategy, but the Islamic Republic of Iran is not one to mess around when they state that Israeli military build up on their borders will not be tolerated. Leaning towards Israel and the US in this instance is a fatal mistake for the oil-rich Persian Gulf nation and pragmatism will serve them now more than ever.
