In July, the Israeli Knesset ratified the first of a wave of bills that seek to curtail the powers of Tel Aviv’s supreme court, dividing Israel’s Jewish population between supporters of the current “liberal western democracy” model and those seeking a more radical system. While hundreds of thousands of Israeli protesters packed the streets, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was rushed to hospital to undergo an emergency surgery. Is it all falling apart for Israel from within?
Israeli demonstrators have consistently packed the streets, every Saturday night, since January of this year. The protesters have shown up in their tens of thousands, sometimes hundreds of thousands, to oppose a series of bills to overhaul the Israeli supreme court; proposed by the far-right government of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. To summarise the current situation, the Israeli Jewish society is currently split in two; the pro-reform side that aligns with the ultra-nationalist Netanyahu administration and the anti-reform camp that argue the legal system overhaul will collapse their Western style “liberal democracy”, ushering in a theocratic system.
Israeli polling data seems to suggest that the majority — at least when it comes to those polled — are in disagreement with the legal overhaul, this includes some voters that support the ruling Likud Party of the Israeli Prime Minister. Despite amassing a few hundred thousand far-right demonstrators in occupied Jerusalem to support the Netanyahu government’s initiative, the pro-reform crowd have performed poorly in displaying public support, while the opposition has been staunch. The Histadrut — Israel’s main labour union — announced a general strike back in March, contributing to Netanyahu’s decision to delay presenting the legal reform bills to the Knesset, and is also threatening to declare the same now. The Israeli military has not been immune to the impact of the opposition movement, with at least 10,000 soldiers refusing to serve in protest, while 1,142 air force reservists announced they would not be serving. Earlier this year, over 100 service people in Israel’s military intelligence’s special operations division, including several senior officers, threatened to stop showing up for serving and said the coalition risks “erasure of Israeli democracy“.
What Has Been Happening With The Legal Reform?
The third vote on legislation that removes the Israeli ‘Reasonableness Clause’ passed 64-0, in July, after members of the Israeli Knesset’s opposition boycotted the final vote. The bill essentially removed one of the tools that the Israeli Supreme Court could use to intervene in the government’s legislative decisions. This was used in the case of Aryeh Deri earlier this year; who Netanyahu wished to make Health Minister, but was prevented by the Supreme Court due to Deri’s past criminal convictions.
As a result of the passing of the amendment, the Israeli economy took a hit, with the Israeli Shekel declining again and investor ratings plummeting. Israel’s notorious high-tech sector, which Benjamin Netanyahu once boasted about, declined materially to raising the lowest funds — 3.7 billion — since 2019, due to the perceived instability in the executive and legislative institutions. Hundreds of thousands of protesters took to the streets, clashing with police, fighting pro-reform demonstrators and blocking roads. An alleged Israeli right-winger was filmed carrying out a car ramming against protesters, as demonstrators were sprayed with water cannons and faced arrest.
To compound the crisis, Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu was rushed to hospital on July 15 after he allegedly collapsed. Although nothing significant was made about the event after the initial shock news, on July 23 the Israeli PM was rushed to hospital again for an emergency surgery, to have a pacemaker implanted, leading to the release of information about his ongoing heart condition. Seventy-five year-old Netanyahu had hidden the fact that he has been suffering from a heart condition, giving him an occasional irregular heart-beat for years. Yet, despite this, the Israeli Premier later appeared before cameras to announce that he was feeling fine, attempting to uphold his projected image of an energetic leader in top health.
The crisis over the judicial overhaul even drew the rare dismay of the US Biden administration, which called the passing of the recent overhaul bill “unfortunate“, urging political consensus. The Israeli military has also stated that the readiness of their military has been impacted by the intentions of reservists to not show up for duty, as the Israeli armed forces chief of staff, Herzi Halevi, was said to have conveyed that in the coming weeks the readiness of the military will be severely compromised.
In reaction to the crisis that his government’s proposed legal reforms have stirred up, Benjamin Netanyahu has repeatedly tried to salvage his image and portray the reforms as minor, expressing regret over the original plans which he called a “mistake” during a conversation with billionaire Elon Musk, earlier this month. The Israeli Premier’s efforts have not completely quelled public opposition, however, as upon his arrival to the United Nations General Assembly — where he would deliver a speech that did not address the domestic Israeli chaos — he was met with protests from Zionists opposed to his reform plans.
An Israeli Civil War?
Despite economic pressure and individual cases of violence, due to the legal system overhaul push that Netanyahu now characterizes as a change in the way judges are chosen, there is yet to be any solid evidence to suggest that Israeli Jews will be picking up guns and fighting on two separate sides over the issue. Countless Israeli politicians and ex-PM’s have warned of “civil war”, however, the crisis does not seem to have yet reached this stage. It is also likely that before the eruption of any civil war, the whole legal reform project would be forced into collapse.
In the event that the pressure is so great that it heads towards a domestic Israeli-Israeli armed conflict, the Zionist Regime’s PM is likely to begin bowing to the demands of the opposition and seeking a true consensus. The reason that Benjamin Netanyahu has not backed off from the reforms, as of yet, is because the Religious Zionism party alliance — that holds the second largest number of seats in the coalition government — openly threatens to collapse the government in the event that the PM backs down. For Israeli PM Netanyahu, his political survival is the primary goal in mind when making decisions at this time; after 5 elections in a matter of years and the repeated failure to form a coalition, the Israeli Premier is in a precarious position. He has formed a government using the most extreme elements of the settler movement from the West Bank, who are looking out for their cause and will not back down. In addition to this, he knows that if his government is collapsed by Religious Zionism, he will likely lose the upcoming election to his rival Benny Gantz, according to Israeli poll data.
The question here is: Will Netanyahu allow the eruption of civil-war in order to remain in power? The answer to this question is unknown, yet it is likely that in the event that civil war is imminent, there will be steps taken to dismantle the government; either from within the government itself or by another external actor.
A conceivable move in this moment, by the Israeli coalition, is to distract the Israeli Jewish public. In order to bring the population together there is a simple recipe, war. Netanyahu and his defence minister, Yoav Gallant, already ordered an attack on Jenin on July 6, an invasion which was limited and concluded in a failure to achieve any tangible objective. Interestingly, the invasion of Jenin did not prevent anti-Netanyahu demonstrations and it did not successfully distract the majority of Israelis; this was in large part due to the limited impact that the operation had outside of the West Bank. If Israel chose to attack Hamas in Gaza, or Hezbollah in Lebanon, for which it has separate pretexts in place at this time, it would impact all Israelis. The armed resistance groups in Gaza would fire rockets all over the occupied territories, into Israeli settlements and cities like Tel Aviv, which would force the Israelis to take to shelters. If a conflict with Lebanon is initiated, buildings in Tel Aviv could be reduced to rubble with ease by the munitions that are now in the possession of the Lebanese resistance, which will shake Israelis to the core.
As of now, tensions are again coming to a boiling point in the Northern West Bank and along the separation fence that divides Gaza from the rest of occupied Palestine. Israeli politicians and the settler movement to which they adhere have been saber-rattling around the contentious issue of the future of al-Aqsa Mosque, pushing Palestinians in Gaza to re-launch demonstrations along the separation fence. Despite years of overwhelming non-violent protests, the most intensive coming between March 30, 2018 and early 2019 — the Great Return March — the protests are now looking more violent in nature, as some demonstrators have began to use explosives to blow holes in the walls and fences surrounding Gaza, with a few cases of protesters using hand guns to open fire on Israeli soldiers. Israel launched airstrikes three days in a row against Gaza, while blocking the only civilian entry point between Gaza and Israel, the Erez-Beit Hanoun crossing, causing a crises by preventing over 10,000 workers from attending their jobs. Incursions into West Bank cities are also occurring more frequently once again, with 4 killed in the Jenin refugee camp during a single raid last week, this came on the same day that a Gaza civilian was shot dead East of Khan Younis.
If push comes to shove, the Israeli opposition to the legal reforms are too staunch, and it looks as if the consequences may amount to either civil-war or social and economic devastation. Gaza and even Lebanon may become the punching bags of choice for Benjamin Netanyahu. Yet this could result in a massive strategic blunder and end in a significant blow being dealt to the Israeli military. However, there does seem to be a desire from the Israeli side to engage in a very limited battle with Lebanon, attempting to keep the fighting between it and the Palestinian factions for the most part.
What happens to those who don’t agree with either form of “liberal” governance?