The negotiations over the possible revival of the Iran Nuclear Deal have come to another temporary halt, as all sides indicate they are near concluding a deal. However, demands from Russia over sanctions protection, for conducting deals with Iran, seem to have thrown a spanner in the works.
Due to the ongoing crisis in Ukraine, the strength of Tehran at the Vienna based negotiating table has temporarily become stronger. The 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan Of Action (JCPOA) was well within reach, it was thought, despite opposition from Israel and neoconservatives based in Washington. The European nations, which are largely subservient to the United States, need trade with Iran now more than ever and are seeking as many alternatives to Russian resources as possible. However, due to the extensive list of sanctions enacted by NATO member States against Moscow, the Nuclear Deal is now far less likely and even less desirable.
Under the JCPOA, the primary benefit comes from the lifting of Washington’s excessive “maximum pressure” sanctions campaign on Iran, criticized by the International Court of Justice for breaches of international law, in addition to violating UNSC Resolution 2231. There is also then the possibility of Iran opening up larger scale trade ties across the globe and greatly strengthening its economy.
The United States is now reportedly in a position in which it has to agree upon how it would remove its mountain of sanctions on Iran, which have completely failed to achieve their given aim of forcing regime change in Tehran or achieving a change in Iran’s policy approaches. Another problem now, which the Western side of the Nuclear Deal talks in Vienna are saying is their primary problem, is Russia’s new demands.
If the Iran Nuclear Deal is to be revived, Iran will likely see the majority of its increase in trade ties with the East, rather than the West. China and Russia will inevitably seek to expand their trade ties with Iran, due to sanctions no longer being a barrier. Although this will be the case for Beijing, which has signed a 25-year agreement with Tehran, for Moscow this may be a real challenge.
Moscow had for years steered clear of establishing certain trade ties with the Islamic Republic of Iran, in order to avoid the damage which it could have endured due to the “maximum pressure” sanctions campaign. Now, the table may be flipped, with Iran opting to steer clear of certain dealings with their Russian allies for the very same reason. Russia clearly does not wish for this to happen and so is attempting to use all its leverage in order to win a deal through which it would still be able to trade with Iran.
Just as the price the West is now paying for their government’s sanctions and boycotting of Russia — hitting their own peoples at the economic level — so too is this having its blowback on the diplomatic level. Amidst this, Israel struck the outskirts of the Syrian Capital, last Monday, killing two Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) members, which has prompted Iran to vow revenge. Furthermore, it has been revealed that the US have seized Iranian tankers that it accuses of attempting to smuggle oil to avoid sanctions. These moves from Israel and the United States clearly threaten conflict, in addition to the collapse of JCPOA revival talks.
The sanctions on Russia could end up removing 10 million barrels, per day of oil from the market. Prior to Washington’s sanctions on Iran in 2018, when former US President Donald Trump unilaterally left the JCPOA, Iran produced roughly 2.4 million barrels per day. If the sanctions are lifted, Tehran may look to up its production again — which has since halved — making up part of the gap in the market. Yet it is impossible for one country to make up that gap alone.
The US government is currently demonstrating the absolute mess that it calls its foreign policy. Despite the Biden administration warning of an imminent Russian invasion of Ukraine for months, the NATO alliance leader did not bother to strike deals with Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the UAE and other OPEC nations, prior to the escalation in the conflict in Ukraine. Since the Western backed coup in 2014, the West has been helping to manufacture the current conflict seen today. We have seen no coherent contingency plan from the West, just a plan to cause suffering amongst its own people in order to punish the citizens of Russia. Now the West is, seemingly out of desperation, calling on Venezuela and even betting on reviving the Iran Nuclear Deal in order to solve their economic catastrophe.
Although the West now needs the likes of Iran and Venezuela, it has however spent decades sanctioning them, killing their peoples, naming their governments ‘illegitimate’, and attempting to achieve regime change. Today, the US government is revealing just how absent its values truly are, as it attempts to forge trade relationships with the very ‘illegitimate’ governments it was moments ago describing as ‘the greatest threat to our democracy,’ now that it is in need.
It is clear that the United States government is posturing towards reviving the JCPOA, but its attitude is still hostile until the very end, and the Nuclear Deal now depends upon Washington dropping its arrogance just to secure the deal. This demonstration of what US diplomacy truly is, could mean the difference between it achieving gains and stability for itself in the long run, or alternatively, paving the way to conflicts it isn’t prepared for. If the deal fails, it isn’t Russia’s fault. Moscow is looking out for its own interests, as is natural for any State. This will ultimately come down to Western arrogance. This arrogance may ultimately be what causes the very collapse of US global dominance.
