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Lebanon Signs Maritime Border Agreement With Israel, Provocation Until The End

Lebanon and Israel have concluded a maritime-border demarcation agreement, granting Lebanon the right to explore and extract natural gas from the Qana field prospect to its coast. The agreement may have averted not only a Lebanon-Israel war, but also tells us a lot about the strategic thinking of Lebanese Hezbollah and how it achieved granting Lebanon its rights.

A maritime border agreement, which had historically failed or stalled for over 10 years, has now been concluded between Tel Aviv and Beirut after two separate signings took place in Naqoura, Lebanon. On October 8, both the Israeli and Lebanese governments reached an agreement on the demarcation of maritime borders, allowing for both sides to establish their own Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ)’s.

Despite harsh criticism from the Israeli opposition leader, Benjamin Netanyahu, along with tacit recognition that Hezbollah threats made the deal a reality from the Israeli side, Israeli Prime Minister, Yair Lapid, called the deal a “tremendous achievement“. The Lebanese government was equally as happy, with President Michel Aoun stating in a pre-recorded interview that the agreement would prevent war and pave the way to later “dialogue” on resolving the ongoing land border dispute. The Secretary General of Lebanese Hezbollah, Seyyed Hassan Nasrallah, also praised the agreement and stated that the document is “a great victory for Lebanon as a state“, refuting claims of normalization as “baseless”.

The main factor at play behind the signing of the agreement was the Lebanese political party, Hezbollah. Although Western media are downplaying their role, the armed wing of Hezbollah were clearly the primary driving force behind paving the way to a quick signing of the maritime-border demarcation agreement. In July, at a time when there had been no talk for years on a real solution to the issue, the Israeli contracted Energean company sent out ships to the Karish field area, sparking an immense backlash from the Lebanese State. At the time, the Karish natural gas field was considered to be in a disputed zone by Lebanon, which had claimed, but never fully ratified, their assertion that part of the gas field was in Lebanese territorial waters. This claimed boundary is known as Line 29, which was proposed informally by Lebanon to include part of the Karish field and full Qana prospect as Lebanese. Israel fired back by claiming that Karish was within its own EEZ, a baseless claim at the time given that no maritime boundaries had been demarcated.

Lebanese Hezbollah then decided to weigh in on the issue, claiming that gas extraction from the Karish field by Israel was a “red line” and that the powerful armed wing of the movement would strike the field and beyond if Israel extracted natural gas prior to maritime border demarcation. To prove their seriousness, Lebanese Hezbollah sent three reconnaissance drones over to the site, waiting for Israel to shoot them down. Tel Aviv proved it’s weakness to defend against a Hezbollah attack, scrambling to shoot down the drones and failing to do so through conventional means. A number of other moves were also taken by the Lebanese resistance group, according to its leader Seyyed Hassan Nasrallah, which will be reportedly revealed at a later date.

The last serious border demarcation talks, that occurred on the issue prior to this year, took place under the supervision of former US-mediator between the two sides, Frederic Hof, between 2011-2012. At the time, Tel Aviv had claimed what they called Line 1, which would have granted Israel access to most of the Qana prospect and a huge area in Lebanese waters. In response to Lebanon’s counter-proposal, for what it called Line 23, was flatly rejected by Israel as a non-starter and so the so-called ‘Hof Line’ was proposed by the then US mediator, this would have only granted around half of the Qana field to Lebanon.

After years of Israeli rejection of any approach outside its claimed Line 1, this year marked a real turning point. Lebanon has been in a state of financial collapse since 2019 and is in desperate need of the finances to revive their suffering nation, something that Beirut believed was only possible with access to its natural gas resources. Hezbollah jumped on this opportunity and put all its weight behind the issue, threatening all out war if Israel and the US mediator, Amos Hochstein, did not take the demands of the Lebanese government seriously.

What followed was a dilemma for Israel; either enter a catastrophic war in which Hezbollah will roughly match any destruction dished out against Lebanon, destroying the prospects of doubling gas export as proposed to fulfill European Union demands, or fold under pressure and grant Lebanon its rights. It is clear that Yair Lapid, who is the US Government’s favorite for PM in the November Israeli elections, decided that the issue was one of urgency and chose to fold under pressure. Hezbollah on the other hand, waited on heightened alert and warned the Israeli side that crossing the red-line of extracting gas from Karish field prior to the agreement would cause war. The Lebanese resistance party was not part of the maritime border discussions, but allegedly was granted access to monitoring what the terms would be.

Israel had initially claimed that extraction of natural gas from Karish field was to occur in September, but evidently delayed extraction in order to avoid crossing Hezbollah’s red-line. After the agreement had been reached, however, Israel granted the Energean firm, that is responsible for extraction, the go-ahead to extract on Tuesday, allowing for extraction one day prior to the maritime border agreement’s signing. This was an evident dig at Hezbollah, an attempt to have the last say, as was the violation of Lebanese territorial waters just prior to the signing of the agreement, prompting the Lebanese delegation to demand the Israeli navy exit their waters prior to signing the agreement.

Although Israel has now gained access to the Karish field and a very small portion of the Qana prospect, it is Lebanon that has left as the major victor here, specifically Hezbollah in this case. Without the pressure of Hezbollah’s hundreds of thousands of missiles, pointed at Israel’s oil and gas infrastructure, military facilities, and cities, there would be no deal right now. Even up until a few months ago the US mediator, Amos Hochstein, was laughing at Lebanese demands and for Israel the Line 23 was a non-starter. Beirut just got Line 23 and managed to force Israel to backdown on its claims to Line 1, surpassing the Hof Line and force Tel Aviv to delay extraction of natural gas from Karish field.

Israel’s last ditch attempts to aggravate Hezbollah, by crossing its red-line one day prior to the maritime border agreement signing and deploying the Israeli navy into Lebanese territorial waters, only reflects on the restraint and pragmatism of Hezbollah. This proves that despite Tel Aviv’s provocations, the group clearly values the prospect of reviving the Lebanese State over sorting out petty matters with Israel’s government. The agreement reached is by no means perfect for either side, Israel will still earn a profit from a small segment of the Qana field and Lebanon did not get access to all of what is called Block 72. Yet the agreement managed to prevent war, and the access to Qana field may be a route to reviving the Lebanese economy over time.

For those that call Hezbollah an irrational actor and proxy force for the Islamic Republic of Iran, this episode alone should be a chapter to reflect upon. It clearly shows the good that Hezbollah has just done for the sake of the Lebanese people and reflects the group’s pragmatic approach.

Robert Inlakesh
Robert Inlakesh
Robert Inlakesh is a documentary filmmaker, journalist, writer, Middle-East analyst & news correspondent for The Last American Vagabond.
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