Israeli airstrikes against Syria’s Aleppo International Airport may have shown us that Tel Aviv has been planning an offensive against Lebanon, striking Syrian airports in order to stop the supply-chain of aid to the Lebanese armed movement, Hezbollah.
On August 31, Israeli airstrikes were launched once again against sites throughout Syria, this time hitting highways and key infrastructure in both Damascus and Aleppo. The strikes have sparked fears that Tel Aviv may be laying the groundwork for an attack on Lebanon.
Unprovoked Israeli airstrikes against Syria have become somewhat routine, often not even earning the attention of Western media, due to the fact that Syria has refused to respond and escalate tensions since 2018. However, the recent attack could be more consequential than the hundreds of attacks that preceded them, this time for Lebanon.
According to Syrian State-run media network, SANA, military sources confirmed that on August 31st, at “about 21.18 p.m., the Israeli enemy carried out an air missile aggression from the direction of Lake Tiberias in northern occupied Palestine, targeting some points south east of Damascus”. The report noted that hours earlier “At nearly 8 p.m., the Israeli enemy targeted Aleppo International Airport with a missile strike that caused material damage to the airport,” making the Israeli aggression wide-stretching.
According to reports on the attack, the Aleppo international airport was rendered temporarily closed, the Damascus-Daraa highway suffered material damage, and a road connecting to Syria’s main airport, Damascus international, was also struck. Videos emerged from the scene of the attack on Aleppo, which showed a fire burning as the alleged result of an Israeli missile strike. Aurora Intel, a pro-Israeli open source twitter account, reported that an Iranian cargo plane had landed in Aleppo international earlier that day, fueling claims that Israel was targeting weapons that were being smuggled through Syria, to Hezbollah.
Reports emerged from the infamous ‘Syrian Observatory for Human Rights’ (SOHR), a pro-opposition news outlet, which regularly invents casualty figures out of thin air. The observatory, run by one man operating out of the United Kingdom, immediately claimed that four warehouses “likely” storing Iranian missiles were struck. Yet the speed at which this was reported and the reporting in the aftermath of the strike gives serious reason to believe the report is false. Despite most Israeli media taking the often ridiculous claims of the SOHR at face value, ‘The Times Of Israel’ seem to be skeptical of the news outlet’s claims.
It is nearly impossible to tell exactly what was destroyed, or what the exact targets of the Israeli strikes were this time around, however, it is clear what locations were struck. This gives rise to the concern that Tel Aviv is now actively going after potential supply routes in Syria, used to re-supply Lebanese Hezbollah. To make things worse, on September 6, Israel again launched unprovoked airstrikes against the Aleppo International Airport, destroying the runway and forcing it to halt operations temporarily.
Over the past months, tensions have risen over Israel’s exploration of natural gas in a disputed zone between Tel Aviv and Beirut. Israel intends to begin drilling from the Karish gas field in October, after initially claiming that they would do so in mid-September. Lebanon claims that resource rich Karish field is in a disputed area, whereas Israel claims it to be within its own Exclusive Economic Zone. There has been no agreement on the demarcation of maritime borders between Lebanon and Israel, which is at the heart of the current dispute, however, a significant breakthrough occurred on at the end of September.
Lebanese Hezbollah has directly threatened to strike not only the Karish field, but also every other oil and gas facility that Israel operates, if there is no agreement by mid-September. So far, no such deal has been struck and it is believed that Hezbollah will follow through on its pledge that if Lebanon cannot access its resources, nobody can. Lebanon is currently undergoing its worst ever economic crisis and needs to access its oil and gas fields in order to pull itself out of the current collapse the country is suffering through.
As it is the modus-operandi of the Israeli military, there is a fear that Tel Aviv may consider the option of a “pre-emptive” attack on Lebanon. Such an attack would attempt to limit the possibility of Hezbollah carrying out massive strikes against Israel. Yet, such a conflict is un-winnable for Tel Aviv, which does not have the ability to destroy Hezbollah and stop it from launching missiles into Israeli targets.
If Israel is considering an attack on Lebanon, it is very likely that they would attempt to go after targets in Syria which would enable supplies to come into Lebanon during the war. It is unlikely that major materials, such as precision weapon parts, would be transferred at such a time, however, it is a possibility that other weaponry could be.
If Israel chooses to launch an attack on Lebanon, it would either be one of the biggest attacks we have ever witnessed, which would spark a retaliation that would level Israeli cities in return, or it would be small and strategic. Most likely, Tel Aviv would go for a calculated attack that would carry the aim of assassinating important figures and perhaps some soldiers belonging to Hezbollah. If this happens, the next move by Hezbollah in retaliation would then determine whether the exchange will be short, or escalate into a potential regional war.