As the war in Ukraine rages on, the European Union has been seeking alternative sources of natural gas and had chosen Tel Aviv as one of the providers to replace Russia. Yet, by signing a deal with both Israel and Egypt to make this possible, the EU could have encouraged a new Israel-Lebanon war.
Amidst rising tensions between Tel Aviv and Beirut over the resource rich Karish field, located in a disputed maritime zone, the European Union inked a new deal with Israel and Egypt to add another source of natural gas to its list of suppliers. The EU-Israel deal, signed back in July, will see Israel transport natural gas to Egypt, where Cairo will use its liquified natural gas (LNG) infrastructure to refine the gas, from their shipping it across the Mediterranean into Europe.
Currently, Israel’s natural gas rate of extraction does not serve to meet the EU’s needs alone, and never can. However, Israel has seen this as an opportunity to follow through on its recent announcement to double its natural gas output, largely through the exploitation of previously untouched oil and gas fields off the coast of occupied Palestine and Lebanon. One of the key fields, which Israel planned to begin extracting from in mid-September, was the disputed Karish field.
The Karish field, which lies off the coast of southern Lebanon and occupied Palestine, is claimed by the Israelis to be within Israel’s “exclusive economic zone”, an assertion that is backed by the United States Government. Yet Lebanon sees this as incorrect and was outraged in early June when Israel allowed for the London-based Energean company to enter the Karish field area by ship. First, the Lebanese government called this a provocative move and warned Israel that the zone was disputed, until the conclusion of ongoing maritime border disputes. Then, Lebanese Hezbollah also weighed in on the issue. In a speech delivered by Hezbollah’s secretary general, Seyyed Hassan Nasrallah, a threat was directly issued to the Israelis and the Energean company, that Hezbollah will not hesitate to respond by force to Israeli provocations against Lebanon. Indirect Israel-Lebanon negotiations over maritime borders were revived in 2020, with US mediation.
The maritime border dispute is a matter of economic life or death for Lebanon, currently suffering the worst economic crisis in its history. To negotiate successfully for what is known as ‘Line 29’ (meaning securing a chunk of Karish field for Lebanon) will mean that the Lebanese will have access to a known oil and gas-rich field that could quite literally flip their economic crisis upside down. However, the US intermediary that heads up the negotiations between both sides, Amos Hochstein, is staunchly pro-Israel and sees the line 29 proposal as a “non-starter”. That is why another proposal, which has now seen support from both sides, which essentially trades Karish field for the Qana field to its north, has become the negotiating position seemingly agreed upon by both Tel Aviv and Beirut.
The issue of Israel supplying the EU with natural gas introduces a number of factors to consider. Firstly, Egypt is suffering its own economic crisis, and Cairo securing this deal allows it to head towards its objective of becoming a gas trading hub. Egypt’s ambitions effect Lebanon’s decisions, regarding targeting Israeli occupied oil and gas fields in response to provocations, since the US Government making Cairo’s own gas supply deal with Lebanon more difficult is a real possibility. After four months of delays, Lebanon was set to sign a deal, on June 21, which would have secured the import of Egyptian gas, in an attempt to help solve the Lebanese electricity crisis. The biggest problem that arose was that the gas must be transported through Jordan and then Syria, to reach Lebanon. Ultimately it is up to a decision by the US Government as to whether they will allow the gas to be imported to Lebanon through Syrian territory, allowing amendments to bypass their own “Caesar Act” sanctions against Damascus. If Lebanon enters a conflict with Israel, the US may end up destroying Lebanon’s deal to import Egyptian gas altogether and even an additional deal that will see Jordan provide Lebanon with electricity supplies. So far, the planned June 21 deal has been dropped due to Washington refusing to budge on the issue of amending sanctions — something it had already pledged to do — forcing Lebanon to resort to the Islamic Republic of Iran to become their new supplier.
Another major factor is Russia. Moscow has clearly become less happy with the Israelis since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, due to Tel Aviv’s frequent siding with NATO. Now, Israel is openly seeking to become part of a number of Russian gas alternatives for the Europeans. Russia has been making moves inside Syria recently that seemed to indicate that they are growing impatient with Israeli airstrikes against the Syrian military.
If it seems that Syria is going to get a Russian green light to begin taking tougher measures in response to routine illegal Israeli airstrikes against Syrian territory, Lebanon may well take note. Specifically, when it comes to Hezbollah, which is the primary force in defense of Lebanon’s sovereignty, they will be looking at all these factors to see whose backing they will have in any strikes against Israel, and who will be their enemies. These issues are important to consider when committing to a response to Israeli provocations.
It is clear at this point that Hezbollah has to use its capability to launch devastating attacks on Israel, as leverage, in order to secure Lebanon a strong position when negotiating its maritime borders. Israel, on the other hand, clearly has the backing of the United States and the EU in its quest to set the narrative on the ground, meaning that they will attempt secure the Karish field for themselves prior to the negotiation’s ending. It has been proven at this point, that the only way to combat Israel’s illegal extraction of resources from Karish field, is with the threat of using armed force, which would have a devastating effect. However, Lebanese Hezbollah cannot simply launch an offensive without solid ground and considers the backlash that their defensive measures may cause on the Lebanese State in the short run. The reason why this has to be a consideration and part of the calculation, is because the West desperately seeks to spark civil war in Lebanon. If the Christian fascist groups — supported by Saudi Arabia and Israel — are given legitimacy in their arguments against Hezbollah, this could cause unrest, which will be abused and manipulated by outside forces. A war with Israel is a piece of cake compared to a civil war. Hezbollah is an extremely pragmatic organization and will be studying all of what has been mentioned above, meaning that if all the external factors align in their favor, Israel will be receiving a large military blow in the near future.
