Israel has faced considerable backlash for its violent incursions into the Al-Aqsa Mosque compound during Ramadan and is being cautioned, even by the United States, to calm the situation down. The Israeli government now seems to be going into survival mode, so the question remains, if Israel goes to war with Gaza again, can it come out as a winner?
After several days of silence, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), a die hard supporter of Israel since the signing of its 2020 normalization deal, summoned its ambassador to Israel this Tuesday. The move came as a means of protesting Israeli occupation forces storming and attacking Palestinian worshippers at al-Aqsa mosque during the Holy month of Ramadan. The UAE’s foreign ministry even issued a statement urging Israel “to immediately stop these events (and) provide full protection for worshippers”.
Turkish President, Recip Tayyip Erdogan, stated this Tuesday that he had informed Israeli President, Isaac Herzog, of how “very upset” he is at Israel’s actions in the West Bank, Gaza, and Jerusalem. This comes amidst a push by both regimes to further normalize ties and build a strong trade partnership. The situation has gotten severe, with most of the Arab countries openly condemning Israel in the harshest of terms, including more friendly Arab countries like Saudi Arabia and Jordan. This has caused the Biden administration’s Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, to step in and call for calm, telling Israel that worshipper rights should be protected in Jerusalem’s Holy sites.
The Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan withdrew its ambassador to Israel and blamed Israeli forces for the attacks that led to 350 injuries amongst Palestinian worshippers at al-Aqsa. Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett then lashed out at Jordan and blamed it of playing into the hands of Hamas. “I must laud … those throwing their stones at all of those Zionists who desecrate Al-Aqsa mosque with the protection of the Israeli occupation government,” said Jordan’s Prime Minister Bisher al-Khasawneh, further enraging Israel’s government who have blamed everyone but the Israeli perpetrators of the attacks.
Israel has now issued a ruling that it will prevent Israeli settlers from storming the Al-Aqsa Mosque site for the rest of Ramadan, following this coming Friday. A settler extremist march planned for Wednesday around the old city of Jerusalem was also not granted police permission. Israel seems to be attempting to calm down the situation on the ground after Gaza’s armed groups managed to successfully draw the Israeli military into a trap and send a strong message that they are ready to go to war in light of Israeli aggression, against the Holy Site. Hamas, the Palestinian political party which controls the besieged Gaza Strip, also informed Israel that it has the weapons now to fight a six month war with Israel if need be.
Last May, the 11-Day war, which broke out due to very similar circumstances, was a catastrophe for Israel, despite it having inflicted far more casualties to Palestinians [mostly civilians]. Palestinians from every walk of life, whether they be Palestinian citizens of Israel, West Bankers, Jerusalemites, or those in the diaspora all placed enormous pressure on Israel. Gaza’s armed groups, which got involved when the situation in Jerusalem got out of hand, were able to inflict many symbolic defeats on Israel and its military.
Israel, for the first time during war with Gaza, was not able to send a single one of its forces into Gaza’s territory and its military strategies were all foiled by the ‘Joint Room’ of Palestinian armed factions in Gaza. Also for the first time, the armed groups demonstrated that they possessed drones capable of targeting key economic infrastructure in Israel, as well as all of its airports and military bases. Not only this, the armed groups in Gaza dictated the pace of the war completely and forced Israel into ending it.
What scares Israel the most, however, is the potential damage another war will have on its standing in the Middle East, especially if foreign groups like Lebanese Hezbollah and Yemen’s Ansarallah get involved this time around. No country in the Islamic or Arab world wants to be associated with Israel’s brutal violence against Holy Sites and Gaza. If Hamas and the Palestinian armed groups again emerge from a future conflict as the guardians of the Al-Aqsa Mosque, this could well open the door for further international and regional legitimacy given to the Palestinian cause and Hamas. On top of this, an embarrassment like that of which took place last year could be enough to win over enough support in the Israeli Knesset for a vote of no confidence in the Israeli ruling coalition, possibly catapulting Benjamin Netanyahu back into power.
Knowing that it is carrying on like a rabid dog, not holding back in its aggression against Palestinians, Israel has only worked to unite them, and now this seems to be influencing Arab public opinion again. If war breaks out again with Gaza on Palestinian terms, the situation could prove extremely dangerous, as the only possible strategy for Israel would be to target as many civilians as possible in order to pressure Hamas to accept a ceasefire. Yet if Hezbollah and Ansarallah become part of the picture, as they have pledged to do, then Gaza may be the least of Israel’s worries.
