Damascus is no longer fighting militants on the battlefield, for now, but the economic and corruption battles it has been forced to take on following the occupation may plunge it back into the chaos that erupted in 2011.
On the 7th of February anti-Government protesters, in Syria’s Suwayda, took to the streets in the hundreds for five straight days, outraged at the slashing of subsidies to the area’s population due to an economic crisis in the embattled nation.
Suwayda is a province of Syria, located in the South of the country and borders Jordan. It is populated heavily by the country’s Druze minority and has been an area of relative calm for the Syrian government, unlike other areas of the country throughout the war. Yet, as of last year, the Druze tribes of the area have been developing a growing contempt for the government in Damascus.
On July 7, 2021, the Syrian opposition announced the formation of the Syrian al-Liwa Party, which vowed to protect Suwayda from the “terrorism of the Syrian government” and clearly presented itself as a sectarian Druze party, which has been linked to the Lebanese Druze leader, Walid Jumblatt, who opposes Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. The Syrian al-Liwa Party is also connected to a militia group known as the ‘Counter-Terrorism Force’, which states that “The main mission of the new military entity, made up of members of the Druze community in the area, is to fight terrorist gangs, especially those who hold [regime ID] cards issued by the regime and carry out terrorist acts against civilians in Suwayda, including kidnappings and killings. The force aims to curb the regime’s facilitation of Iranian militias, most notably Lebanese Hezbollah.”
The leader of the Syrian al-Liwa Party is a man named Malek Abo Kheer, who, according to Nowras Aziz, “contacted the [US-led international] coalition forces at Al-Tanf base in the second half of 2020, explaining his plan in Suwayda. Abu Kheer had informed the forces that the steps would include declaring full control over the eastern villages [of Suwayda province] and removing any presence of the Syrian regime or Iran in that area.” Iran is notably not operating any proxy forces in Suwayda and the motives of this group, having allegedly made contact with an illegally occupying power in Syria [the US], are questionable to say the least.
On top of this, the Syrian economy is in shambles; since 2010 [pre-war] the economy has shrunk by at least 60% and the inflation impact on the Syrian pound stands around 300%, according to World Bank statistics. It is not only the war that impacted the Syrian economy either, the US government-imposed ‘Caesar Act’ sanctions have effectively gutted an already weakened Syrian state and the government’s access to roughly 90% of the country’s oil and gas is cut off, as well as its most fertile agricultural lands. These lands are currently occupied by the Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which serve as a proxy for the American military, and allow for them to reign supreme over the resources of Syria.
For ordinary Syrians they have had to reduce their consumption of food and fuel and have lost access to many of the bare necessities. In fact, during the height of the fighting in the war there was better access to goods for most Syrians outside of opposition held areas. So this has led to a situation in which public unrest is very much on the table. When people don’t know where their next meal is coming from or only have a few hours of electricity per day and have sacrificed their lives, watching many of their family members die in order to maintain the current rule in the country, it’s no wonder why some are turning around and asking questions.
The Syrian government is not fighting to recapture Idlib, the diplomacy seems to have stalled with the SDF in north eastern Syria, and they haven’t responded to hundreds of Israeli airstrikes since 2018. For Syrians who fought the war to keep the country together, seeing the way the government in Damascus is dealing with the situation is becoming frustrating. Israel has, for instance, bombarded the country’s life line, the Latakia port, twice and the Syrian government refused to successfully take measures to prevent further attacks. Additionally, we have the corruption now rampant in Syria, where gangs are controlling areas and resources, and the government has done little to stop this — and what it has done is not published. What is disseminated widely are videos of Syrian forces cracking down on University demonstrators, or small businessmen. So it becomes no wonder why the situation has again grown hostile.
Whilst there is virtually little to no support for any of the opposition groups in Syria — primarily al-Qaeda affiliates — there is most certainly discontent with the current set of circumstances. All that being said, it is primarily the issue of the illegal war, punitive sanctions, and theft of resources that are truly strangling the Syrian economy, and the actions of the Syrian government are by no means the whole reason for the growing anger. Yet by Damascus working to fix these issues, the ones within its control, it could significantly alter its current trajectory.
The biggest issue that could arise from these current protests, specifically in Suwayda with the Druze population, is that if armed groups open fire on the Syrian military this could quickly turn destructive. A robust response by the Syrian Arab Army would easily put down a rebellion, but it would only mean creating more hostilities in an unwanted place. It is clear that Israel, the United States, and other foreign actors such as Qatar, have an interest in seeing the Suwayda demonstrations go nuclear, which is why it should be a priority to address this situation pragmatically. Cutting subsidies is the worst tactic to try and neutralize a potentially toxic, even sectarian, environment and only time will tell whether we will see a mature response from Damascus going forward, or more of the same.
