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A New Israel-Gaza War Possible – Is May 2021 Repeating Itself?

Jerusalem has again become a battleground in the past week, with Israeli extremist settlers and police forces attacking Palestinian demonstrators throughout occupied East Jerusalem. With armed attacks against Israeli forces on the rise and protesters taking to the streets across all territories in occupied Palestine, will this drag the armed movements based in the Gaza Strip into a new confrontation with the Israeli military?

In 2021, from May 6 until the 21st, a war between the armed factions in the Gaza Strip and the Israeli military broke out. After a month of Israeli provocations surrounding the old city of Jerusalem, the Al-Aqsa Mosque compound and the Sheikh Jarrah neighborhood, Palestinian demonstrators had taken to the streets of Jerusalem, the West Bank and what is called ‘Israel proper’, or the 1948 occupied territories. All of this came to a boiling point, when Israeli settler fanatics, who had taken to the streets for weeks shouting “death to Arabs“, had announced they would storm the Al-Aqsa Mosque compound, one of the Holiest sites for Muslims.

The al-Qassam Brigades, the armed wing of the Hamas movement — that serves as the democratically elected government in the Gaza Strip — fired a batch of around 40 rockets at Israel in response to the provocations. This opened up an armed confrontation that lasted 11 days and resulted in the killing of 254 Palestinians and 13 Israelis. What was unique about this armed confrontation was the mobilization of Palestinians from all the occupied territories, even Palestinians in Jordan, Lebanon, and Syria decided to take action.

Since that time we have seen a completely new movement grow from the youth inside the West Bank specifically, which later, in September of 2021, translated into the announcement of a new armed movement that bases itself out of the Jenin Refugee camp, the ‘Jenin Brigades’. As the months went on, by early 2022, the Tulkarem brigades and Nablus Brigades also emerged, both named after their cities of origin in the West Bank. On September 2, of this year, a group calling itself the ‘Lion’s Den’ announced its formation, from the old city of Nablus, later going on to carry out successful attacks against Israeli occupation forces. The above groups can clearly be seen to have taken inspiration from the uprising of May 2021, but more importantly, those who make up the group’s ranks are primarily young people between the ages of 18-25.

In April of 2022, Israel launched an unprovoked military offensive against the Gaza Strip, in which they targeted the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) movement along with the civilian population of the besieged coastal enclave. This resulted in a resounding failure for the Palestinian armed movements in the Gaza Strip, losing the momentum that had been hard-won over years, built around an image of strength from the besieged territory. This could have potentially had an impact on slowing down the momentum of the newly formed Palestinian armed groups inside the West Bank also, if it wasn’t for the massive mistake of the Israeli leadership.

In a bid to try and garner political points, in the face of the upcoming Israeli elections in November, interim-Prime Minister, Yair Lapid, along with his political ally and Minister of War, Benny Gantz, decided to extend their military operation to the West Bank. Just days after waging war on the ill-prepared Gaza Strip, the Israeli military sent in special force units to assassinate a 19 year old resistance fighter, Ibrahim Nablusi, who was located in the old city of Nablus. Nablusi, who evaded Israeli arrest and assassination attempts for two years, was cornered in the old city and was eventually killed by Israeli special forces. The way in which he was killed, however, did not work to discourage the armed and popular movements inside the West Bank. Instead, Ibrahim Nablusi was immortalized as a heroic martyr. He never surrendered himself and kept firing until his weapon ran out of bullets, recording a message for his mother and the Palestinian people whilst besieged inside a building that Israeli troops eventually entered after using an anti-tank munition. Nablusi stated:

“I love you mother. My message to everyone is to protect our homeland. Do not give up your arms. I am barricaded now. I am going to be martyred.”

The bravery of Ibrahim Nablusi, whose funeral was attended by tens of thousands, was an inspiration to Palestinians throughout the West Bank. His story was one that resonated due to his young age, perseverance and his final words in the face of inevitable death. In the months following his assassination Israeli forces upped their raids into the Palestinian refugee camps and areas where armed movements had begun to grow, this was then followed by several shooting attacks against Israeli settlers and soldiers.

The Recent Escalation

A recent shooting attack that was carried out at the Shuafat refugee camp checkpoint, in East Jerusalem, following the killing of a number of Palestinians in Jenin, kicked off the latest escalation. A young Palestinian man exited a car at the checkpoint, opening fire with 8 bullets and managed to kill an Israeli solider, injured two others. What was significant about this attack was three fold; firstly the attacker was not part of any armed group, or at least did not act on their behalf; second, the Israeli society at large responds the worst to the deaths of soldiers — opposed to civilians — and it was especially impactful that it occurred in East Jerusalem; thirdly, the attacker got away with ease and has not been arrested until now. As a result of the attack, Israel besieged the Shuafat refugee camp, which led to an uprising inside the camp. This uprising then spread to the rest of East Jerusalem.

Another Israeli incursion into Nablus, which was met with a shooting attack from a speeding car — claimed by the Lion’s Den group — killed an Israeli soldier, leading to tight restrictions on Nablus. This caused an uprising throughout the West Bank, backed by a number of student unions at prominent universities, such as Birzeit University. Recently, the Sheikh Jarrah neighborhood in Jerusalem, which was one of the boiling points that led to the escalation of May 2021, has also become a hotbed for protests, after a number of incidents involving armed Israeli settler extremists and Israeli far-right Knesset Member Itamar Ben-Gvir.

On Friday, the Palestinian ‘Joint Room’ of Armed factions released a statement, in which they praised the Palestinian resistance throughout the occupied territories and called for an escalation on all fronts. Interestingly, the Joint Room seemed to have learnt their lesson from the war in August, regarding their rhetoric. Previously, the rhetoric of the armed groups in Gaza allowed for Israel to turn all of the focus on the Gaza Strip, in attempts to quell the uprisings elsewhere. Past statements, made by the leadership of various Palestinian resistance movements, projected an image that the Gaza based fighters were much more powerful than they actually were. Tel Aviv was able to take advantage of this and do damage in Gaza, by going on an unexpected offensive and hence removing the element of surprise that gives the Palestinian groups any military edge.

Offensively, the groups in Gaza have much higher capacities now than ever before. However, their abilities to defend themselves are greatly limited, as Israel’s military technology is of such a higher standard than the homemade explosives and rockets that the groups have at their disposal. It now seems as if the armed groups have learnt from previous mistakes and have changed their rhetoric, refraining from making threats in the way they previously did. What is also notable is that during their latest statement, they also dressed in military overalls without any markings that would differentiate the representatives of each armed group, something that we haven’t seen before. The interesting thing about the way the resistance factions dressed during their press conference, is that the lack of any factional divide is what we see in the West Bank and something that the younger generation of Palestinians have constantly called for. It would seem therefore that the armed movements in Gaza are listening to the popular will of their people.

If a greater escalation occurs soon, the groups in Gaza could become involved, but first the uprising will have to come from the outside and will be followed by the powerful armed groups. This way the offensive will be much more effective and may be able to mirror the result of 2021, or even take the victory further. So far this year, more Palestinians have been killed in the West Bank, than in Gaza, over 160, and the number continues to grow by the day. This period is one of escalation and the beginning of the Third Intifada (Palestinian national uprising), something that Israel greatly fears.

Robert Inlakesh
Robert Inlakesh
Robert Inlakesh is a documentary filmmaker, journalist, writer, Middle-East analyst & news correspondent for The Last American Vagabond.
https://twitter.com/falasteen47

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