The Israeli government lost its slim majority earlier this month with the resignation of Idit Silman, the eight-party coalitions whip, which has led many to believe that the return of Israeli opposition leader Benjamin Netanyahu is likely. This may mean an extremely explosive environment, in which the Israeli military could quickly see itself confronting armed Palestinian resistance and confront this with war.
The current Israeli coalition has now lost its majority in the Knesset, with Benjamin Netanyahu calling on other Israeli lawmakers to resign in kind, at a far-right anti-Palestinian rally in Jerusalem. The resignation of MK Idit Silman, of the current Israeli Premiers Yamina party, stated that she took the move in order to preserve “the Jewish identity of the State of Israel”.
The Israeli ruling coalition will now face a concerted campaign by the Israeli opposition to unseat it and pass over power to Netanyahu’s Likud Party. In order to drop this coalition, there must be a bill passed in the Knesset to dissolve parliament and go to another round of elections. However, the issue for Netanyahu now is that he only has 56 votes out of 120 on his side for such a bill. A bill of this kind must receive a minimum of 61 votes in favor. It will now be the mission of the Israeli opposition to attempt to cut deals in order to achieve this objective.
If conventional politics do not work to achieve the goals of the Likud-led opposition, then more hardline tactics may be afoot. This will mean provoking chaos with the Palestinians in order to destroy the viability of the current ruling coalition. This seems very possible according to the current rhetoric from Netanyahu and his backers.
Last year’s 11-day war on the Gaza Strip, which resulted in the murder of 270 Palestinians and 13 Israelis, came as a direct result of Israeli antagonism towards the Palestinians. Throughout the Holy month of Ramadan, Israeli forces obstructed access to the al-Aqsa Mosque compound for Muslim worshipers and to the Church of the Holy Sepulchre during Easter. Massive clashes between Israeli forces and Palestinians ensued throughout the month, with far-right settler extremists attacking Palestinians at random, in and around the old city of Jerusalem, chanting “death to Arabs”. By May 10, the Israeli occupation forces had raided al-Aqsa mosque several times and attacked peaceful worshippers, continuing to do the same on that very day. Israeli settlers then threatened to storm the site, provoking a warning from the armed groups in Gaza.
Gaza’s ‘Joint Room’ of armed resistance factions threatened Israel several times not to cross red lines and the cancel the settler march. Early on May 10, 2021, Abu Obeida, the military spokesperson of Hamas, put forth a deadline for Israel to end its provocations, that was 6 o’clock (local time). Israel refused to listen and the rockets began flying into Israeli settlements surrounding Jerusalem.
Although the Palestinians suffered considerably more losses during the war last May, Israel suffered a massive strategic defeat. Israel failed to fulfill any military objectives in Gaza, not even daring to enter the territory on the ground. Palestinian citizens of Israel, West Bankers, Jerusalemites, and also Palestinians in Jordan took to the streets in protest, from Syria and Lebanon they fired rockets. This Israeli failure dealt a significant blow to then Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and paved the way to the end of his 12-year reign in power.
Again, tensions are boiling between Palestinians and Israelis. In 2022, Israel has cracked down on Palestinian citizens of Israel in unprecedented ways, fueling Palestinian nationalism and has even aggravated the historically friendly (to Israel) Bedouin citizens of Israel. A recent string of attacks last month by Palestinians from Bedouin, Palestinian citizen of Israel, and West Bank backgrounds only worked to prove this point. The attacks killed 11 Israelis in 7 days and whipped up racist Israelis into a rage, leading to a massive surge of attacks against Palestinians and the desecration of their properties.
Benjamin Netanyahu now sits in a very powerful position. He argues that the current Israeli government is betraying the Jewish nature of Israel — meaning that it is too inclusive to Arabs. This is not even true, but this is the racist incitement against Palestinians we are hearing from the Israeli opposition. In addition to this, Netanyahu argues that Israel’s ruling coalition is failing in its attempts at security against Palestinians. To begin with, this Israeli coalition government was viewed by many supporters of the eight parties that belong to it, as having betrayed their constituents and bowing to their alleged political opponents. That means that if the government is dissolved this could be a knockout punch to Benjamin Netanyahu’s political opposition in the upcoming elections. This alone makes Israeli lawmakers, that are part of the government, nervous and could lead to more withdrawing from the coalition in a bid to save their political careers.
If peaceful means of attempting to dismantle the government fail, an all-out war between Palestinians and Israelis (like happened in May 2021) may be a strategy that the Israeli opposition now seeks, in order to drop the coalition government once and for all. The only problem for Israel is, how far will the Israeli right-wing go to achieve its goals? If they cause a huge escalation in Jerusalem, the response may be too much for Israel to handle.
Following the 11-day war last May, Secretary General of Lebanese Hezbollah, Seyyed Hassan Nasrallah, announced that he was putting together a coalition of allies in order to wage a regional war on Israel, in the event that last May’s attacks on Jerusalem occurs again. This would mean groups in Iraq, Syria, as well as Hezbollah, Yemen’s Ansarallah, and Palestinian groups all waging war on Israel. Although this may seem unlikely at this point, what is certainly the case is that the armed factions in Gaza will choose to strike Israel in response to large provocations. So the question becomes, is Benjamin Netanyahu prepared to burn Israel in order to position himself to grab power?
